by Matt Barr

For the Bills to make the playoffs

I wrote a couple weeks ago they could do it if they won out, and they still can. Here's what has to happen.

New England either losing at Miami (I refuse to root for that) or at the Jets would leave them 14-2, probably, and Pittsburgh, who gets the Giants in New Jersey and Baltimore at home (and must beat Baltimore for the Bills to have a realistic shot; more below), would go into its season-ending game at the Ralph with its number one playoff seed sewn up, making that game more winnable. I think, having scored 37 or more points in four straight games, the Bills can beat the Steelers even with something to play for, but it sure would make life easier if New England coughed up a loss in the next two weeks so we saw the Steelers' second string.

Baltimore, now 8-5, needs to lose two of its next three. It can happen: They are at Indianapolis and then at Pittsburgh the next two weeks. Were they to win one of those games I would have to root for the Dolphins to beat them at Baltimore in week 17, and I refuse to do so. So, Indy and Pittsburgh will have to take care of business the next two weeks.

Denver, also 8-5, likewise needs to lose two more. This is tougher, but looked nice 'n juicy at the beginning of the year: They travel to Kansas City and then to Tennessee the next two weeks. If they split those games, they see Indianapolis at home, possibly playing for either Peyton's record (though it's likely wrapped up by then) or jostling for a playoff seed. As bad as tonight's MNF teams have been record-wise this year it's still going to be tough to go to Arrowhead and to Tennessee and win. Let's cross our fingers.

Jacksonville has to lose just one of its next three: at Green Bay, home to Houston, or at Oakland. Let's hope Favre and company can take care of that next week and clear them out of the way.

Now, all this assumes that the Jets, now 9-4, win at least one more game, as would befit a 9-4 team. The Bills have split with the Jets this year and I confess to not knowing what the next tiebreaker is, division record? Anyway, realistically, to vault over the Jets we'd have to win out and have them lose out; they see Seattle and New England at home and then go to St. Louis. All three teams are motivated by playoff considerations, so won't roll over, but I won't hold my breath. If by some miracle the Jets lose all three of those -- and remember, we kind of hope they trip up the Pats if the Dolphins don't -- then one of the above scenarios involving Baltimore, Denver and Jacksonville can fail to happen and the Bills still squeak in.

And, it assumes, but does not take for granted, that the Bills win out, as I posited first thing above and wrote about before. We go to Cincinnati, a tough but winnable game the way things are going, then to San Francisco, which is a mess, before entertaining the Steelers.

It never occurred to me sitting there at the Ralph watching Jacksonville beat us on the last play of the opening game of the year that I might have seen the play that determined whether we got into the playoffs, but it's looking more and more like that's just what it was. Stupid back judge calling that Wilford was forced out of bounds and would have landed in. I still disagree.

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