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April 27, 2005
by Matt Barr

Court stats

Forty two opinions have been issued from the 2004 term, four of them per curiam, so 38 for which we have voting results. I thought I'd take a look at who's voting most often and least often with the majority, and which are the most reliable voting blocs.

Notes: Chief Justice Rehnquist took part in 28 of the 38 decisions. Where a Justice joined in the judgment but not the opinion of the Court, or even part of that opinion, I didn't count him or her as voting with the majority. Mr. Justice Breyer joined one opinion of the Court this term except for footnote 6; I didn't include him in the majority. Not because he wasn't substantially in agreement, just to have a bright line rule. If I count Breyer as part of that majority, what about when Mr. Justice Thomas joins in the judgment but the opinion as to Part III only?

The Booker case, which had two holdings and two opinions (let's not get into it; see here), was treated as two majorities.

So: Here are the Justices ranked by the percentage of the time they fully join the Court's majority opinion. Rehnquist's percentage is out of 28.

O'Connor, J. .895
Breyer, J. .816
Souter, J. .789
Kennedy, J. .789
Ginsburg, J. .763
Rehnquist, C.J. .750
Scalia, J. .737
Thomas, J. .737
Stevens, J. .711

I can hear you all the way over here, looking at the identical .737 marks for Scalia and Thomas. How often do they vote together? 1.000? .950? Actually, it's a reasonable .789, the same percentage of the time Kennedy votes with the majority. (Here, I reference "voting together," which isn't necessarily true; one may concur in the judgment and one dissent, etc., so technically, we're measuring here whether they are together on the majority, together in not joining the majority, or one of each. The percentage is the first two situations divided by 38.)

How does the .789 Scalia/Thomas alignment stack up with other blocs?

Scalia/Thomas .789
Souter/Ginsburg .868
O'Connor/Kennedy .842
Breyer/Ginsburg .789
Scalia/Stevens .447

Out of the 28 cases Rehnquist participated in, by the way, Rehnquist, Scalia and Thomas fell together at a .607 clip -- far below what you would have guessed, unless you're a serious Court watcher, I bet.

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Comments
CGHill posted:

I have to admit, I would have guessed Scalia and Thomas on the same side about 90 percent of the time.

April 28, 2005 10:37 AM


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