by Matt Barr

Closers and one-run games

Brian O'Neill writes in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette today (as of this posting the column doesn't have a permanent link) about the Pirates' league-worst 6-14 record in one-run games and correctly deduces that the main culprit is luck. But he tacks on a troubling discussion of Jose Mesa at the end:

So what's been the problem?

The tempting answer is the closer, Jose Mesa. As Bob Smizik pointed out in his Sunday column, Mesa's record in protecting one-run leads and preserving ties has not been good. With his 4.38 ERA, that is no surprise. That's about a run every other inning, so in any given inning there's a 50-50 chance Mesa will give one up. Sure enough, Smizik found that the Pirates lost four of the eight games that Mesa entered with the Pirates ahead by a run or tied.

This year's best NL teams in one-run games, the Padres (15-5) and Nationals, have closers with exceptional strikeout-to-walk ratios. Trevor Hoffman tops the league's closers at 11.00 and Chad Cordero is sixth at 3.56. The teams with exceptional one-run records last year, the Padres and Dodgers, also had closers with great K/BB ratios (Hoffman at 6.63 and Eric Gagne at 5.18).

The Marlins (7-14 in one-run games) and Pirates, meantime, have Todd Jones at a modest 2.30 and Mesa at a miserable 1.43. The argument would end there had the White Sox not won so many one-run games (20-8) despite a closer, Dustin Hermanson, with a 1.55 ratio, barely ahead of Mesa's.

The problem is it's easy enough to look at the Pirates' 20 one-run games and see if Mesa's been the problem.

He hasn't, for what should be an obvious reason: In 11 of 20 one-run games, 10 of them losses, Mesa hasn't pitched. This is intuitive because, generally, half your one-run games won't give you a lead to protect. Close to half will be one-run losses, a sizeable majority of which you'll trail, not lead, in the late innings, and others will be wins in the last half of the ninth, for example.

Start with the most recent losses and work backwards. On June 17, Boston beat the Pirates 6-5 with a run in the bottom of the ninth; Mesa didn't pitch. Rick White, who had come in in the eighth, came apart with the score 5-5 in the ninth, giving up a double, a sacrifice where Jason Varitek reached on White's error, an intentional walk to load the bases, and a fielder's choice that got Kevin Youkilis at home but left the bases loaded for Mike Gonzalez, who promptly gave up a game winning single to Johnny Damon.

On June 6, Baltimore took a one-run lead on an unearned run in the eighth and held on to win.

On June 4, Gonzalez erased an eight inning three-hitter by Mark Redman as 206-year-old Brian Jordan scored from first on a double by 452-year-old Julio Franco in the top of the ninth.

On May 27, Gonzalez came in to a tie game in Cincinnati and lost the game on two hits and a fielder's choice.

On May 24, Mesa pitched a scoreless 11th against St. Louis but gave up a Yadier Molina RBI single in the 12th.

On May 22, the Pirates scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth but lost to Colorado 4-3.

So, there are lots of ways to lose one run games that don't involve save situations. You have to go back seven losses and more than a month before you get to a one-run loss in which Mesa blew the save. If anything, recently Mike Gonzalez has been the problem!

The Pirates are an abyssmal 1-10 in one-run games In which Mesa hasn't pitched. Mesa himself has saved only five one-run games out of his 18 total saves, losing and/or blowing the save in another four, including May 18. (In one game he came in with a two-run lead and gave up one, which is why Bob Smizik correctly says "the Pirates lost four of the eight games that Mesa entered with the Pirates ahead by a run or tied.")

So maybe it's neither Mesa nor Gonzalez, but a lack of offensive punch?

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