by Matt Barr

Houston's problem

Who's buried in last in the majors in runs scored? By a lot? The Astros are, 33 runs behind the Pirates. It's easy to finger Willy Taveras' leading off as the reason, but that's really not it.

Taveras took over as the Astros' full time leadoff hitter April 25, and the team's gone 16-23 in games he's batted first. But they're 12-16 with someone else, Biggio, Adam Everett, Orlando Palmeiro, or whoever leading off.

Is there any good reason beyond his being a fast centerfielder for Taveras to be getting more at bats than anyone in the Astros' lineup?

Batting first, Taveras is hitting .288/.314/.362, and you're neither going to win nor score a lot of runs if your leadoff man is getting on base 31 percent of the time. From Opening Day till April 24, Taveras looked like a decent leadoff option: .305/.373/.441, but has eked out only .282/.310/.350 since. Be a fast centerfielder and sport an .814 OPS and you'll lead off, sample size be damned.

But in three minor league seasons 2002-04, his OBPs were between .381 and .402, the latter at Round Rock last year. Baseball Prospectus warned that "it was almost entirely a batting average thing.... He wasn't putting the ball in play any more (slightly less, in fact). Thirty-eight walks and 16 extra base hits in 460-odd plate appearances at Double-A are negatives, no matter how fast you are or how much scouts like you." Still, based on the results, his leading off isn't indefensible, even if it hasn't helped much yet.

Who else is there? In a lineup regularly featuring Jason Lane, Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus and the like, you probably want Biggio and Berkman hitting in run producing situations. Besides, since April 25 Biggio is generating a flaccid .244/.298/.426 line, and Berkman (returning May 6) .241/.348/.346. You shouldn't cut either one for having a bad month and a half, but it's clear the results wouldn't be much different if someone besides Taveras were leading off.

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